2011 MELBOURNE CUP ANALYSIS

Below we give our top 4 Melbourne Cup selections along with two different trifectas and a Yes/No comment on each runner.

2011 MELBOURNE CUP

1. American YES
2. Jukebox Jury YES
3. Dunaden YES
4. Drunken Sailor NO
5. Glass Harmonium NO
6. Manighar YES
7. Unusual Suspect YES
8. Fox Hunt YES
9. Lucas Cranach YES
10. Mourayan YES
11. Precedence NO
12. Red Cadeaux NO
13. Hawk Island NO
14. Illo YES
15. Lost In The Moment NO
16. Modun YES
17. At First Sight YES
18. Moyenne Corniche NO
19. Saptapadi NO
20. Shamrocker NO
21. The Verminator NO
22. Tullamore YES
23. Niwot YES
24. Older Than Time NO

Top 4 Selections

1. Dunaden
2. Lucas Cranach
3. At First Sight
4. Mourayan

Flexi-Boxed Trifecta 1
Cost $50 for 41.66%
1. Americain 3. Dunaden 9. Lucas Cranach 10. Mourayan 17. At First Sight 23. Niwot

Flexi-Boxed Trifecta 2
Cost $20 for 5.95%
1. Americain 2. Jukebox Jury 3. Dunaden 9. Lucas Cranach 10. Mourayan 17. At First Sight 22. Tullamore 23. Niwot

Flemington Tuesday Selections

Melbourne Cup Meeting – Tuesday November 01

Race 1 – 8. Languish 1. Alezan Thunder 2. Applegate

Race 2 – 3. Vintedge 9. Gail 6. Influential Miss

Race 3 – 10. Western Symbol 16. Perfect Pecs 3. Above Average

Race 4 – 10. Cabernet (EACH-WAY SPECIAL) 14. Neriani 1. Flying Tessie

Race 5 – 2. Karuta Queen 5. African Pulse 3. Spirited Addition

Race 6 – 1. Disputes 2. Combat Kitty 5. The Fairy’s Kiss

Race 7 – 3. Dunaden 9. Lucas Cranach 17. At First Sight

Race 8 – 4. Lamasery 12. Lone Command 8. God Has Spoken

Race 9 – 8. Diplomatic Force (SPECIAL) 4. Perturbo 7. Shadowfax

Race 10 – 14. Too Deadly 3. New Day Rising 8. Studley Park

Trainer delighted with Americain

Alain de Royer Dupre believes Americian is better 12 months on, but admits he’ll need to be.

French trainer Alain de Royer Dupre declared today that Emirates Melbourne Cup favourite Americain was in better shape now than at the same time last year.

Royer Dupre, who arrived in Melbourne last night, visited the Werribee International Horse Centre this morning and was delighted with the condition of the defending cup champion

“I think he looks better now, very healthy and fresh, but then again he has more weight this year,” Royer Dupre said.

Anericain is topweight with 58kgs in the $6.5 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m), 3.5kgs more than he carried to victory in the historic 150th edition 12 months ago.

“I think there are many other chances this year so he will need to be better,” Royer Dupre said, adding that Americain seems to produce his very best form when in Australia.

With Melbourne experiencing a wet Sunday Royer Dupre echoed the sentiments of the most of the international trainers when he said “the more rain the better” for Americain.

Fellow French trainer Mikel Delzangles, who worked for Royer Dupre for 10 years before taking out his own licence, said it was Americain’s win last year that inspired him to try his hand with Tuesday’s second favourite Dunaden.

“He (Dunaden) has beaten Americain three times this year and he meets him better at the weights,” Delzangles said.

Newmarket-based trainer Luca Cumani, who has Manighar and Drunken Sailor in the Cup, raised a laugh at today’s media call, indulging in a spot of wishful thinking when he labelled Dunaden as the best of his runners.

“He’s a progressive stayer who looks well weighted to me,” Cumani said referring to the 54.5kgs to be carried by Dunaden, an impressive winner of the Geelong Cup (2400m) a fortnight ago.

Cumani said Manighar, who finished seventh in last year’s Cup, would run well again but it was a harder contes this year.

As for the chances of Drunken Sailor, Cumani said, “You’ll have to ask him that….it really depends which side of the bed he gets out of on Tuesday.”

Cumani reiterated that 2008 Melbourne Cup runner-up Bauer would have been his stable’s best chance this year had he made the final starting line-up of 24.

Bauer was 25th in the Order of Entry when final declarations were taken on Saturday and missed out on getting start by less than $1000 in prize money.

UK trainer Ed Dunlop, on his first visit to Australia with a horse, was impressed with the way Red Cadeaux worked on Saturday, finishing off strongly at the end of a 1400-metre gallop.

The talented horseman is another who would like to see more rain because Red Cadeaux, who’ll be ridden by Michael Rodd, excels with the sting out of the ground.

Yorkshire-based trainer Mark Johnston, who has the highly rated Jukebox Jury and Fox Hunt in the Cup, said his horses had impressive form around several other international contenders but “this is a very definite kettle of fish.”

This is Johnston’s fourth attempt to win the Melbourne Cup after previous visits in 1994, 1995 and 1999 failed to produce a placegetter.

Atlantic Jewel out of Crown Oaks

The Crown Oaks has lost its drawcard runner.

Brilliant filly Atlantic Jewel is injured and will not contest Thursday’s $1 million Crown Oaks.

The Mark Kavanagh-trained star hurt a hamstring while demolishing her rivals in Saturday’s $300,000 Wakeful Stakes and will be sent to the spelling paddock.

The unbeaten daughter of Fastnet Rock goes to the paddock a winner of her only five starts, including the Group 1 Schweppes Thousand Guineas.

Her withdrawal sheds a whole new light on the 2500-metre Classic, for which she was the $1.15 favourite with TAB Sportsbet after a seven-length Wakeful romp.

Myrtle makes it an Ollie Group 1 double

Matthew Smith and Damien Oliver combined to win the Myer Classic with Hurtle Myrtle.

Warwick Farm trainer Matthew Smith celebrated his maiden Group 1 success when Damien Oliver turned back the clock to claim the $500,000 Myer Classic (1600m) with Hurtle Myrtle at Flemington on Saturday.

The Hall of Fame hoop completed a Derby Day Group 1 double when the under-rated mare followed up Oliver’s earlier elite-level success aboard Glass Harmonium in the Longines Mackinnon Stakes.

The 39-year-old, a three-time winner of the AAMI Victoria Derby, was thrilled to be back in the Melbourne Cup Carnival spotlight.

“It’s a great week to be riding winners,” Oliver said. “It’s been a bit lean for me, the Flemington Carnival, in recent times so it’s nice to get amongst the big races again.”

At the other end of the spectrum, Smith was thrilled to bring up his maiden Group 1 on one of the biggest days of the year.

“It’s a dream come true,” he said. “This is what you aim for as a trainer, on this day, to win a Group 1. It’s such a thrill.”

Hurtle Myrtle didn’t have everything go her way in the Myer, but she was just too good. The daughter of Dane Shadow was wide and near the rear straightening for home, but surged into the race and settled down to fight it out with last year’s winner Sacred Choice.

Hurtle Myrtle gained the upper hand in the final 100m, edging away to score by 1.3 lengths from the Joe Pride-trained Sacred Choice with Dysphonia, from Peter Snowden’s Darley yard, completing a Warwick Farm-trained trifecta.

Superstar Sydney mare More Joyous endured a torturous run from her wide barrier, trapped three wide for the first half of the race, which told in the straight. The $2.60 favourite finished seventh, 6.5 lengths from the winner.

Oliver was confident from a long way out and was thrilled to maintain his unbeaten record on Hurtle Myrtle.

“We got over nicely and got a bit of cover and she really towed me into the race,” Oliver said. “She was going to be a big chance a long way out.

“I had a ride on her in the Sydney autumn and we won a nice race up there, so it’s only my second ride today and we’re two for two. All credit to Matt, both times I’ve ridden her she’s been in magnificent order.”

Oliver’s day got even better the following race when he partnered consistent mare Sister Madly to a thrilling win in the $300,000 Group 2 Seppelt Salinger Stakes.